New jobs and homes:
Our view is that the number of planned new homes should be significantly lower. The 31,500 homes already provided for in the adopted Local Plans are more than sufficient for a 5-year housing supply according to objectively assessed needs (see notes below). Given the exceptional circumstances we are living through, it makes sense to keep housing demand under review rather than committing to build according to high forecast growth.

We note the statement made by the Planning Authority during the webinars that “If we don’t have enough certainty about water supply, we will have to look at a stepped trajectory or reducing the amount of housing we plan for”. Officers also noted that “Quick and decisive action [is] required by central government and the water industry – this is out of our hands as a Local Planning Authority”. We agree and would support the Planning Authority in any attempt to reduce or at least delay house building from the central government allocation. Based on conversations we have had with Cambridge Water, we believe that while there might be ideas on supplying more water in the future we can see no achievable commitment. We note Natural England’s Position Statement for Applications [1] within the Sussex North Water Supply issued in September, which states that, "Developments within Sussex North must therefore must not add to this impact and one way of achieving this is to demonstrate water neutrality … As it cannot be concluded that the existing abstraction within Sussex North Water Supply Zone is not having an impact on the Arun Valley site, we advise that developments within this zone must not add to this impact.”

Notes: For an objective assessment we quote household projections by the Office for National Statistics. We note that the more recent the assessment the lower the number projected (Table 1). In the most recent projections (2018 based) the projected increase between 2020 to 2041 is 7,900. Since this projection was calculated there have been two hugely significant events: Brexit and COVID-19. The National Planning Policy Framework allows that “any other method [other than use of 2014 based projections] will be used only in exceptional circumstances”. We hold the view that leaving the EU, COVID, together with climate change are exceptional circumstances and would welcome a plan based on these.

It is worth noting that the 2014-based household projection for 2020 for Greater Cambridge was 119,400 households. In the 2018 based projections the estimate for 2020 is 108,500, so in four years the 2014-based projections have over-projected by around 10,000 households.
Table 1: Projected household change, Cambridge and South Cambridgeshire, 2020-2041
Projection Number of households 2020-2041
CLG 2014 based c. 23,600
ONS 2016 based 12,200
ONS 2018 based 7,900
Source: CLG and ONS household projections. 2014 based ends at 2039, so the 2041 figure is from a simple assumption of continuing change.

The number of houses built over the last five years (2015/16 to 2019/20) averages 1,750 a year. While need is not as simple as applying that to the future, 31,500 homes would last for more than 15 years at that rate.

[1] https://www.horsham.gov.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0019/106552/Natural-Englands-Position-Statement-for-Applications-within-the-Sussex-North-Water-Supply-Zone-September-2021.pdf