Overall, we do not believe that the Councils are planning for enough growth. We also have concerns at the lack of new planned commercial space, as highlighted in the appended evidence report by Savills.
Policy S/JH is the first strategic policy within the Local Plan and sets out the total number of jobs and homes proposed over the plan period.
We agree with the supporting text for this policy, that it is very important that housing delivery keeps up for demand for increased jobs within the area.
As part of the preparation of the emerging Greater Cambridge Local Plan, the Shared Planning Service has identified a need for 2,321 dwellings to be built per year. A significant proportion of this growth is made up of existing allocations within the Local Plan. As set out in paragraphs 5.2-5.4 below, over reliance on large scale, strategic, and importantly complex sites, is contrary to policy in the NPPF 2021, and an approach which spreads growth more evenly, with less associated risk, is urged.
The initial evidence base and spatial options assessment for the emerging Local Plan, set three growth options; ‘minimum’ (40,300 dwellings - based upon standard methodology); ‘medium’ (46,200 dwellings- based upon economic forecast based upon long term historic employment) and ‘maximum’ (67,700 dwellings – based upon fast economic growth in the recent past). In view of this, the housing delivery target of 44,400 new homes over the plan period alongside 58,500 new jobs would fall between the ‘minimum ‘and ‘medium’ growth scenarios previously suggested.
The Development Strategy Topic Paper that accompanies this consultation acknowledges that the Greater Cambridge economy is dynamic and does not readily align with national or regional forecasts for job growth. In particular, it has a world- renowned life sciences cluster which has the potential to drive growth beyond typical regional or national rates. It is also acknowledged that in the recent past employment growth within the region has been significantly higher than predicted.
Accounting for the evidence set out within the Development Strategy Topic Paper, it is not clearly justified why only 44,400 new homes and 58,500 new jobs are proposed over the plan period. The Local plan sets out a projection for 1.1% growth, whereas CPIER recommends 2.4% growth and ONS recommends 4.2% growth. Accordingly, it is considered that this approach should be re-visited to increase both housing and employment allocations within the Local Plan. It is considered that the delivery of housing should be significantly increased, to align with economic growth within the recent past. The case for maximum growth forecast is further supported by significant transport investment within the area over the plan period. This includes schemes such as East- West Rail, Cambridge South Station and the delivery of a number of Rapid Transit Routes proposed by the Greater Cambridge Partnership.
The provision for lower growth scenarios does also not appear to be consistent with the government’s objectives for the Ox- Cam Arc as a centre for housing and employment growth.
Further information on this, is set out within a further report that has been completed by Barton Willmore on behalf of Endurance Estates, in relation to a number of sites that are being promoted by Endurance as part of the emerging Local Plan.