The Council states that the new Local Plan will meet the following objectively assessed needs for development in the period 2020-2041:
• 58,500 jobs
• 44,400 homes, reflecting an annual objectively assessed need of 2,111 homes per year, which is rounded for the plan.
This figure equates to an average of 2,114 homes per annum, with a suggestion that this will meet an objectively assessed housing need for 2,111 homes per annum that has been rounded upwards in deriving the total figure. It is noted that the Plan seeks to provide for approximately 10% more homes than are calculated as being needed, a total of around 48,840 homes.
In justifying a housing need figure above the standard method, the First Proposals cite evidence assembled in the following two studies, with the higher need predicated on supporting anticipated economic growth within Greater Cambridge:
• Greater Cambridge Local Plan: Housing and Employment Relationships (November 2020), GL Hearn; and
• Greater Cambridge Employment Land and Economic Development Evidence Study (November 2020), GL Hearn, SQW and Cambridge Econometrics.
The latter of these two studies presents two alternative forecasts of potential economic growth over the plan period:
• A Central Scenario under which 58,400 new jobs would be created, claimed to represent the ‘most likely outcome taking into account long term historic patterns of employment’ with the Housing and Employment Relationships study also describing it as ‘a ‘business as usual’ growth scenario’
• A Higher Scenario under which 78,700 new jobs would be created, with this ‘higher outcome placing greater weight on fast growth in the recent past, particularly in key sectors’ and the Housing and Employment Relationships study describing it as ‘a plausible but more aspirational growth outcome’.
The Housing and Employment Relationships study concludes that housing provision in line with the standard method will not support either of these economic growth scenarios. It estimates the housing need associated with supporting both as follows:
• Central scenario – 41,900 to 44,310 homes (1,996-2,110dpa) with the range reflecting alternative commuting assumptions, the upper end assuming that there is a 1:1 or balanced commuting ratio for new jobs and the lower end assuming continued in-commuting
• Higher scenario – 53,500 to 56,490 homes (2,549-2,690dpa) with the range again reflecting alternative commuting assumptions.
The proposed housing requirement evidently aligns with the Central scenario (58,400 jobs), with the First Proposals therefore not looking to provide the housing infrastructure that would appear to be needed to accommodate a more ambitious level of employment growth.
Whilst Taylor Wimpey support that the Council have set a housing figure higher than the Standard Method, it is their view that the Council should be more ambitious in planning for what has been presented as a reasonable and higher forecast of employment growth. This is particularly when considering the important strategic position of Greater Cambridge within the Oxford-Cambridge Arc and the clear aspirations for economic growth within the Arc. Clearly the Greater Cambridge Local Plan will also need to conform with the Spatial Framework for the Arc when prepared which will have the same status of National Policy.