Policy S/JH of the Draft Local Plan proposes to meet the following objectively assessed needs for development in the period 2020-2041:
•58,500 jobs
•44,400 homes, reflecting an annual objectively assessed need of 2,111 homes per year
For housing, Paragraph 60 of the National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF) states that Local Plans should support the Government’s objective of significantly boosting the supply of homes, providing, as a minimum, the number of homes informed by a local housing need assessment, using the standard method in national planning guidance. National guidance says that there will be circumstances where it is appropriate to consider whether actual housing need is higher than that indicated by the standard method.
For Greater Cambridge the housing need using the Standard Method would equate to 1,743 homes per annum. However, rather than planning for the minimum calculation using the Standard Method, the Councils’ strategy is to propose a higher housing figure of 2,111 homes per annum. This higher figure is based on the medium growth scenario identified in the Greater Cambridge Employment Land and Economic Development Evidence Study, published in 2020. This study also set out a higher growth scenario placing greater weight on the high historic growth rate between 2001- 2017. Based on the higher growth scenario the modelling predicted that 78,700 jobs would be required over the plan period.
Whilst Miller is supportive of the Councils’ decision to plan for higher levels of growth than the standard method, it is disappointing that the Councils’ have decided to base their strategy on the medium rather that the higher growth scenario. The Greater Cambridge economy is dynamic and does not readily align with national or regional forecasts for jobs growth. It has a world-renowned life sciences cluster which has the potential to drive growth beyond typical regional or national rates.
We would strongly advise the Councils’ to ensure that their objectively assessed is more aligned with the higher jobs growth aspirations. An indicative calculation based on Cambridgeshire and Peterborough Independent Economic Review suggests that if the jobs growth is achieved, around 2,900 homes a year would need to be built in Greater Cambridge, an indicative total of 66,900 homes over 2020-2041.
As set out in the Government’s most recent consultation document the Arc has the potential to be one of ‘the most prosperous, innovative and sustainable economic areas in the world’. However this transformational growth will only be achieved if local authorities truly plan positively for the housing and economic needs of the area. On this basis we would strongly urge the Council to plan for the higher growth scenario which is more aligned with past growth rates in the Greater Cambridge area.