Section: S/JH: New jobs and homes
Whilst Bridgemere Land Plc support the approach that the Council have taken in setting a housing figure higher than the Standard Method, it is their view that the Council should be more ambitious in planning for what has been presented as a reasonable and higher forecast of employment growth over the Plan period and accordingly that this needs to be supported by a higher level of housing provision in the emering Local Plan.
Full Text:
The Council states that the emerging Local Plan will meet the following objectively assessed needs for development in the period 2020-2041:

• 58,500 jobs; and,
• 44,400 homes.

The housing figure equates to an average of 2,114 homes per annum, with a suggestion that this will meet an objectively assessed housing need for 2,111 homes per annum that has been rounded upwards in deriving the total figure. It is noted that the Plan seeks to provide for approximately 10% more homes than are calculated as being needed, a total of around 48,840 homes.

In justifying a housing need figure above the standard method, the First Proposals cite evidence assembled in the following two studies, with the higher need predicated on supporting anticipated economic growth within Greater Cambridge:

• Greater Cambridge Local Plan: Housing and Employment Relationships (November 2020), GL Hearn; and,
• Greater Cambridge Employment Land and Economic Development Evidence Study (November 2020), GL Hearn, SQW and Cambridge Econometrics.

The latter of these two studies presents two alternative forecasts of potential economic growth over the Plan period:

• A Central Scenario under which 58,400 new jobs would be created, claimed to represent the ‘most likely outcome taking into account long term historic patterns of employment’ with the Housing and Employment Relationships study also describing it as ‘a business as usual growth scenario’;
• A Higher Scenario under which 78,700 new jobs would be created, with this ‘higher outcome placing greater weight on fast growth in the recent past, particularly in key sectors’ and the Housing and Employment Relationships study describing it as ‘a plausible but more aspirational growth outcome’.

The Housing and Employment Relationships study concludes that housing provision in line with the standard method will not support either of these economic growth scenarios. It estimates the housing need associated with supporting both as follows:

• Central scenario – 41,900 to 44,310 homes (1,996-2,110dpa) with the range reflecting alternative commuting assumptions, the upper end assuming that there is a 1:1 or balanced commuting ratio for new jobs and the lower end assuming continued in-commuting
• Higher scenario – 53,500 to 56,490 homes (2,549-2,690dpa) with the range again reflecting alternative commuting assumptions

The emerging Local Plan is proposing to deliver 44,400 homes, which supports 58,500 new jobs, aligning with the Central Scenario for growth in the District over the Plan period.

As set out in the Council’s Topic Paper on the Development Strategy (September 2021) at Section 5.3, the evidence base has identified that Greater Cambridge is a centre of excellence and a world leading economy of international importance. Whilst the focus is within the knowledge-based economy, other types of industry provide a wide diversification of jobs and services in Greater Cambridge, including education, retail, leisure, tourism and agriculture, all of which are highly important. This together with the important strategic position of Greater Cambridge within the Oxford-Cambridge Arc means that there is significant opportunity to plan for the higher jobs scenario of 78,700 new jobs, which in turn needs to be supported by a higher housing requirement of between 53,500 – 56,490 new homes to ensure that an appropriate level of market and affordable homes can be delivered within the Plan period.

Whilst Bridgemere Land Plc support the approach that the Council have taken in setting a housing figure higher than the Standard Method, it is their view that the Council should be more ambitious in planning for what has been presented as a reasonable and higher forecast of employment growth over the Plan period.
Attachments:
2021_12_13_Bridgemere Representations, Hauxton_As Issued.pdf