The Council states that the new Local Plan will meet the following objectively assessed needs for development in the period 2020-2041:

• 58,500 jobs; and,
• 44,400 homes.

The housing figure equates to an average of 2,114 homes per annum, with a suggestion that this will meet an objectively assessed housing need for 2,111 homes per annum that has been rounded upwards in deriving the total figure. It is noted that the Plan seeks to provide for approximately 10% more homes than are calculated as being needed, a total of around 48,840 homes.

In justifying a housing need figure above the Standard Method, the First Proposals cite evidence assembled in the two studies set out below:

• Greater Cambridge Local Plan: Housing and Employment Relationships (November 2020), GL Hearn; and
• Greater Cambridge Employment Land and Economic Development Evidence Study (November 2020), GL Hearn, SQW and Cambridge Econometrics

The latter of these two studies presents two alternative forecasts of potential economic growth over the Plan period:

• A Central Scenario under which 58,400 new jobs would be created, claimed to represent the ‘most likely outcome taking into account long term historic patterns of employment’ with the Housing and Employment Relationships study also describing it as ‘a ‘business as usual’ growth scenario’;
• A Higher Scenario under which 78,700 new jobs would be created, with this ‘higher outcome placing greater weight on fast growth in the recent past, particularly in key sectors’ and the Housing and Employment Relationships study describing it as ‘a plausible but more aspirational growth outcome’

The Housing and Employment Relationships study concludes that housing provision in line with the Standard Method will not support either of these economic growth scenarios. It estimates the housing need associated with supporting each would be as follows:

• Central scenario – 41,900 to 44,310 homes (1,996-2,110dpa) with the range reflecting alternative commuting assumptions, the upper end assuming that there is a 1:1 or balanced commuting ratio for new jobs and the lower end assuming continued in-commuting;
• Higher scenario – 53,500 to 56,490 homes (2,549-2,690dpa) with the range again reflecting alternative commuting assumptions

The emerging Local Plan is proposing to deliver 44,400 homes, which supports 58,500 new jobs, aligning with the Central Scenario for growth in the District over the Plan period.

As set out in the Council’s Topic Paper on the Development Strategy (September 2021) at Section 5.3, the evidence base has identified that Greater Cambridge is a centre of excellence and a world leading economy of international importance, of which Clare College contributes to. Whilst the focus is within the knowledge-based economy, other types of industry provide a wide diversification of jobs and services in Greater Cambridge, including education, retail, leisure, tourism and agriculture, all of which are highly important. This together with the important strategic position of Greater Cambridge within the Oxford-Cambridge Arc means that there is significant opportunity to plan for the higher jobs scenario, which in turn needs to be supported by a higher housing requirement to ensure that an appropriate level of market and affordable homes can be delivered within the Plan period. Of relevance to the College is also the need to deliver student accommodation for their undergraduate and postgraduate population and that the First Proposals document confirms that these units also contribute to the overall housing requirement.

Whilst the College support that the Council have set a housing figure higher than the Standard Method, the College would suggest that the Council could be more ambitious and plan for higher housing and employment growth in the District to align with their Local Plan evidence base.