New jobs

2.14. The Cambridge economy is internationally significant and sits at the heart of three economic corridors. Its’ influence therefore extends far beyond Greater Cambridge. There are really important key sectors located here; research & development, professional services, health and care. Nevertheless, the joint authorities recognise the need for a mixed economy providing a wide range of jobs, whilst maintaining the global reputation of Greater Cambridge for innovation.
2.15. The evidence base documents within the First Proposals consultation make clear that the effect of this highly successful local economy is that it comes at a cost; high house prices and low levels of affordability, leading to increased commuting distances and associated carbon emissions impacts. There is also a potential threat of de-population from Greater Cambridge with economic migration to more affordable areas, especially if working patterns in the knowledge economy are increasingly flexible and supported by technological advances.
2.16. We understand that the approach taken to forecasting jobs has involved looking back, to review both recent and longer-term employment trends, but also a look forward using the standard regional economic forecast as a baseline. The conclusions set out in the evidence base have been towards promoting a ‘central scenario’ seen as ‘most likely’ accounting for longer terms patterns of employment growth, but with acknowledgement of recent fast growth in key sectors.
2.17. However, there has also been a ‘higher scenario’ considered, which is seen as ‘plausible’, and which places greater weight on the recent fast jobs growth in the key sectors. It is also noted that there has also been accelerated growth in jobs generally in recent years.
2.18. There is a difficulty (that is recognised in the GL Hearn ‘Housing and Employment Relationships Report’) in delivering the homes to match job provision, and a recognition that existing (2011 Census) commuting patterns would expect Greater Cambridge to continue to be a net importer of labour. The minimum growth model takes the number of houses that would derive from the Government standard method to calculate the number of jobs that this would support; whereas the higher growth model takes more specific account of evidence of job forecasting in Greater Cambridge, and uses that to calculate the homes required to support it.
2.19. MGH asserts that, if the objective of the plan is a successful economy that can continue to thrive and meet the local authority carbon emissions targets, it will need the homes to match jobs, or commuting will increase. Alternatively, the policy would need to be to deliberately constrain job growth, which, in our view, does not comply with government policies or the Arc strategy. Given the very particular, arguably exceptional, ambitions for growth in Greater Cambridge the latter approach would be unlikely to be found sound.
2.20. Savills undertook an Employment Market Assessment in July 2020, on behalf of MGH, which indicates that the Cambourne office market, while smaller compared to other urban areas in the region, has a diverse business sector base comprised of companies in the knowledge economy. This mix is comparable to that found in Cambridge and signifies that Cambourne is already seen as an attractive office location. Cambourne’s office rents are competitive compared to other regional markets in the wider area and there is a good level of high-quality office premises.
2.21. The industrial market in Cambourne was assessed in the same study as being limited at present, compared to main industrial locations at Bedford and Cambridge and, to a lesser degree, Biggleswade and Huntingdon. Bedford and Cambridge dominate the ‘large sheds’ market (over 10,000 sqm) while the other locations cater more for ‘mid box’ industrial sheds (2,000 - 5,000 sqm). However, much of this stock is assessed to be in need of renewal, which could provide an opportunity for Cambourne in the near to medium-term.
2.22. The Employment Market Assessment also indicated that the new EWR station and other mass transit proposals would enable a significantly larger labour catchment to access North Cambourne via public transport modes. We estimate that this could achieve a theoretic modal shift from car to rail within the 30 and 45-minute drive time catchments of more than 50%. This point is explored in further detail in Section 4 of our vision document. This shift would help underpin future investment, given the importance placed by businesses in having access to suitably qualified staff.
2.23. Much of the existing and future (once EWR is operational) local labour catchments have skill levels higher than the national average, which would benefit office-based occupiers in particular. The Savills employment study also identified the positive impact that new rail stations across the UK have had on their local commercial markets within a 2-mile radius. These positive impacts included reduced vacancies, higher rents, and increased leasing activity and new deliveries compared to their relevant regional markets. Based on these factors we estimate that Cambourne could capture up to 15% of future office growth within its office market area and up to 5% of its industrial market area.
2.24. From the Savills Employment Market Assessment this translates to:
• 37ha of office land (or 185,000 sqm of office floorspace) over 20 years or 55ha (278,000 sqm) over a 30-year period, based on a 50% plot ratio;
• 11ha of industrial land (or 43,000 sqm of industrial floorspace) over 20 years or 16ha (65,000 sqm) over a 30-year period, based on a 40% plot ratio.
2.25. Our ambition for North Cambourne, contained within the vision document and illustrative masterplan, therefore indicates much more than the 40,000 sqm of employment space shown in the previous SHLAA submission.
2.26. The masterplan in the vision document shows a large area of employment space together with the homes that can be accommodated at North Cambourne, that equates to just over 1 job per home. We would also wish to generate more jobs within the existing areas of Cambourne, in order to rectify the current imbalance of 0.35 jobs per home that presently exists within the settlement and which gives rise to high levels of out-commuting.
2.27. Overall, the importance of a job led approach, incorporating a realistic assessment of local economic factors and the ability to deliver housing that supports the labour market in a sustainable way, is critical to the strategic policy for Greater Cambridge and meeting the wider economic objectives for the Arc. These objectives will be supported by the growth proposed at North Cambourne.
New homes
2.28. The recognised need is to provide homes consistent with the forecast jobs (as detailed in the ‘Housing and Employment Relationships’ report).
2.29. The Greater Cambridge LPAs have explained that the proposed housing quantum is derived from understanding workplace populations, commuting patterns and resident populations, and has also involved testing likely commuting patterns. The housing forecast is associated with the most likely central employment scenario, and assumes that all the additional homes generated by forecast jobs above those supported by the standard method will be provided in full within Greater Cambridge.
2.30. The table below identifies the scenarios in the First Proposals consultation that have been assessed in seeking to identify the overall position on Objectively Assessed Need. Importantly, we understand that the jobs are proposed across all employment sectors, including business, retail, leisure, education and healthcare.
Homes 2020 - 2041 Jobs 2020 - 2041
Minimum Growth – Gov Standard Method 36,700 45,800
Per annum 1,743 homes 2,181 jobs
Central Scenario – ‘Most likely’ 44,400 58,500
Per annum 2,111 homes 2,786 jobs
Higher Scenario – ‘Plausible’ 56,500 78,700
Per annum 2,690 homes 3,748 jobs
Table 2.1 – Homes and Jobs Scenarios in the First Proposals Local Plan 2041

2.31. The table above suggests a changing factor of 1.24 to 1.31 to 1.39 jobs per home, as the numbers increase. We suggest that this, in turn, could potentially increase the amount of displacement and commuting. This is particularly relevant in Cambourne, where the job to home ratio is currently low. Furthermore, it is accepted by the joint authorities that planning for the standard method of calculating homes would increase the risk of higher levels of commuting.
2.32. It is also notable that an independent economic review has suggested an even higher number of jobs could be created, based on the recent accelerated growth in some sectors. The consultation document highlights that the Cambridgeshire and Peterborough Independent Economic Review (CPIER) says: “A distinguishing feature of [Cambridgeshire and Peterborough] is how strongly it has grown recently… This has been driven primarily, but not entirely, by rapid business creation and growth in the south – Cambridge and South Cambridgeshire.”.
2.33. In conclusion, MGH would strongly support the higher scenario for jobs and housing that has been assessed, given that it is seen as ‘plausible’, and also that the recent trend demonstrates accelerated growth in jobs in Greater Cambridge. It is this level of growth in jobs that should guide the housing targets in order to avoid local labour shortages causing damage to the economic potential of the area and / or giving rise to longer distance commuting, which will render the 2030 and 2050 net zero carbon targets unachievable.